Snowball effect

Via AdMob (read the PDF report) we learn today that the iPhone now generates 55% of all US mobile web traffic, up from a 24% share just one year ago (see here). Meanwhile RIM’s share of mobile web traffic in the US has dropped from 27% last year to only 12% today. Indeed, the Blackberry OS is now #3 behind the iPhone OS and Android OS (which represents 20% of domestic web traffic today, up from 0 a year ago). The trend isn’t just domestic. Over the same period, the iPhone has grown globally from 15% to 50% of all traffic, while RIM has dropped from 10% to just 7% today.

So, we know that, given the current adoption rate and consumer plans for future purchases, sometime next year there should be more iPhones on the market than Blackberries, and that’s assuming Apple doesn’t release a new iteration of the phone (because iPhone adoption spikes with each new release, whereas RIM’s adoption rates remain constant). We know that iPhones have higher customer satisfaction than Blackberries by a wide margin. We know that developers are abandoning other OS environments for the iPhone because they aren’t profitable enough, or don’t have a big enough audience (read: market share).

I’m not saying that Apple has won the mobile wars by any stretch of the imagination (2 years ago, one could have said the same of RIM), but it’s hard to argue with that kind of inertia.

Thanks, AT&T!

So the big announcement yesterday from Apple was the release date for iPhone OS 3.0 and the next generation iPhone – the 3GS! Finally, we’ll be able to enjoy full support for MMS, tethering, and turn-by-turn directions!

Unless, of course, you haven’t jailbroken your iPhone.

You see, these iPhone 3GS and OS 3.0 doohickies caught AT&T completely by surprise, so they won’t be supporting MMS or tethering on release day. While even the lowest-end free AT&T phones support MMS, MMS won’t be available until “late summer” for the iPhone. And AT&T isn’t even estimating when tethering support will arrive. Of course, jailbroken iPhones have had all this functionality for over a year now, so technically the most advanced technology is just a voided warranty and DMCA violation away!

There is at least one benefit for iPhone 3G owners, though. Due to our honored status as “valuable AT&T customers,” we get the privilege of spending almost double what a virgin iPhone user would to get the new phone, and we only have to re-up for another 2 years to take advantage of the offer!

Thanks, AT&T!

I believe the rest of the iPhone community will agree with me when I say you have my continued loyalty and support, until the minute your exclusivity deal with Apple ends and the exodus of us valued customers can begin to a carrier with the actual capacity to support us!